Monday, October 20, 2014


     I turned around my portfolio late Thursday afternoon.  It is now 115% long, absolutely no hedges.

     My reason for doing so is my personal conviction that there is going to appear on the scene, perhaps in Brussels or someplace, some obscure entity who happens to have unlimited access to a printing press and who has a yen for certain currencies -- perhaps japanese and/or european.

     So I benefitted from the strong rally on Friday.  I apologize to both of my readers for not posting this information earlier here.

     Indeed this morning the Japanese stock market is booming, up over 3%.  Across Europe, however, there is still a lot of red ink.

     My inclination is that the powers that be do not intend to reverse the recent trends but perhaps to halt them and sustain the current levels.

     My buddies are solidly convinced that the drop in crude has been deliberately engineered to punish the bear.  Guilty parties meet customarily in Riyadh.  Belatedly it dawned on them all that the so-called free world pumps a lot more oil than the russians and the iranians do.  the recent price drops are threatening to bankrupt some seriously large and probably indispensable entities, such as Mexico, Venezuela, and the Republic of Exxon.  I am betting very, very heavily that the present price is an absolute bottom and in fact, within three years we will have the next oil shock.

    It will start out profitable and end up a disaster.....

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