Monday, October 20, 2014


     I turned around my portfolio late Thursday afternoon.  It is now 115% long, absolutely no hedges.

     My reason for doing so is my personal conviction that there is going to appear on the scene, perhaps in Brussels or someplace, some obscure entity who happens to have unlimited access to a printing press and who has a yen for certain currencies -- perhaps japanese and/or european.

     So I benefitted from the strong rally on Friday.  I apologize to both of my readers for not posting this information earlier here.

     Indeed this morning the Japanese stock market is booming, up over 3%.  Across Europe, however, there is still a lot of red ink.

     My inclination is that the powers that be do not intend to reverse the recent trends but perhaps to halt them and sustain the current levels.

     My buddies are solidly convinced that the drop in crude has been deliberately engineered to punish the bear.  Guilty parties meet customarily in Riyadh.  Belatedly it dawned on them all that the so-called free world pumps a lot more oil than the russians and the iranians do.  the recent price drops are threatening to bankrupt some seriously large and probably indispensable entities, such as Mexico, Venezuela, and the Republic of Exxon.  I am betting very, very heavily that the present price is an absolute bottom and in fact, within three years we will have the next oil shock.

    It will start out profitable and end up a disaster.....

Thursday, October 16, 2014

where is the bottom

I cannot give you a number.  Not even a ballpark.

I can tell you that we are not even close, yet.  Yesterday's recovery, from down 460 at 1:30 to a close of down 175, will all be wiped out today.

This I can tell you ... when the teleprompter of the united states gets up in front of the cameras and tells everyone that the situation is hopeless and he thanks everyone for the good times, then, it will be there .....

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

the magic drop of water

     One of the nicest things about Ebola is that it will kill rich people faster than poor people.

     The deal is, rich people are so incredibly helpless.  they must surround themselves with servants and sycophants who wait upon their slightest whims and fancy.  They cannot do anything for themselves, not cook, not get dressed, not drive, not shop.  I swear, the very richest cannot even wash their own bums.

     All those people circling around them all day long, every day, it only increases the odds of transmission.  Trapped inside their steel and glass, their office cubicles, their forced air controlled humidity and temperature, it is nothing but a fancy, expensive, inescapable prison.  Death row.

     I closed out my short on United Airlines, two days ago.  Yesterday they got a nice dead cat bounce.  It'll head back down today, but I've got bigger fish to fry.

     I shorted JP Morgan Chase.  Biggest short position I have ever taken.  This is going to be so much fun.  I am going to make a killing.....

Sunday, October 12, 2014

under biological attack by US Government

  okay, I am not a conspiracy addict .... I do not subscribe to the level of intent and malevolence stated by this article, but I present it to my discerning readers for thoughtful consideration.

Yes, I believe that many of the actions of my government constitute pure evil.  However, in many or most cases, this evil is more the result of thoughtlessness, irresponsibility, and a general lack of discipline and personal character.  I do not believe that the people which are directing our destiny have pre-planned the ultimate outcomes.  They are not that smart and they are certainly not that erudite or worldly.  Most or all of them really believe that they can have their cake and eat it, too.  They are not Gods.

But I have said what I have said, and I will stand up here and repeat it for all three of my readers:  the central planners, the architects of globalization, have messed up, and while they may be terribly good at mitigating small or medium-sized disasters, it is inevitable that the day will come when something will be big enough that they can't deal with it.  It is inevitable just as if you throw a rock up in the air, it will come back down.  this has happened over, and over, and over again, in the history of mankind.  Nothing is different this time except the scale of the endeavor and the number of people on earth dependent upon it.  I guarantee you, again, that within thirty years time the number of living people on this planet will be reduced by at least half.

Even if they successfully contain Ebola, or keep it in Africa, there is something bigger waiting in the wings.  Every battle like this that they win only means that the failure will be that much more devastating.

On a long-enough time frame, everything goes back to zero.  No matter how many diseases we find cures for, no matter how safe we make our cars and airplanes, no matter how much we improve our agriculture,and no matter how much we pretend and fantasize,  everybody still dies in the end.
Life would be a lot better if so many people had not completely lost sight of this simple fact of life.  But it is what it is.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

market crash

     The stock market is setting up for another major crash ....

It is going to be a slow motion wreck.  There's an awful lot of people who have an awful lot of money who are firmly convinced that the market will never go down again.  At the first sign of any cough or sniffles, Doctor Federal Reserve will come on the scene with a hypodermic needle to inject as much cash as needed, plus a lot more.

So how have they done with Ebola so far?  This, the miracle technological society, where there is a pill for everything, where every action that anybody ever takes has already been pre-scripted?

The members of the Federal Reserve have set a course, long ago, towards a very slow, gradual tightening of the money supply.  So far, with a lot of help from the Department of Labor Statistics, and the Goldman Sachs ought-to-be-convicted anal-ists, the numbers which are being reported in the major media are consistent with the patterned propaganda that everything is getting better all of the time and this is the best of all possible worlds (with apologies to Voltaire!).

It is going to take a pretty healthy dose of reality to get them off their high horse to recognize what is actually going on.  Maybe when a crowd gathers at the White House fence, carrying pitch forks?
By then, it will be far too late to avert disaster... those individuals who are below the top 400 richest and most powerful men in the world but above 95% of the rest of the population in the first world, are about to have the living shit kicked out of them.  They are totally unprepared for this.  Most of them have been lulled into a deep opiated slumber, a dream world of unicorns and rainbows, where optimism and hope are required and any deviation form "the power of positive thinking" is considered to be schizophrenic, deviant and maladjusted.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.....

Unfortunately, the people under them will suffer too.... as I have said, over and over and over again, the world population is going to be reduced by half over the next 20 or 30 years or so and its not going to be too much fun for anyone.  Let the culling begin ....