Thursday, November 6, 2014


     There are lots of people -- call them investors -- clinging to the notiion that across North America, this coming winter will resemble last winter.  Human nature was ever thus, expecting the most immediate future to closely resemble the most immediate past.  sometimes things do work out that way, however, after periods of extremes events are far more likely to revert to the norm than they are to continue on in the extreme.

     This time last year, I had already burned through over a cord of firewood.  As of today, there have been only five mornings so far this season when I have wanted a fire in the furnace and by midmorning the warmth has been sufficient to let it go out.

     This time last year, the spot price for natural gas was around $3.40 and I was crying about how ridiculously low that was.  Right now its around $3.90.  I say that that is high, and I've put my money where my mouth is. 

     We shall see.  (Unless, of course, everything else goes south just a bit more quickly than we presently expect it to ....)

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