...so who took my advice and invested in natty?
This just out from EIA:
Working gas in storage was 3,071 Bcf as of Friday, December 20, 2013,
according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decline of 177 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks
were 591 Bcf less than last year at this time and 313 Bcf below the
5-year average of 3,384 Bcf
...but you really have to look at the chart on their website to get the full effect....we are headed for a shortage, a serious, frightening shortage....
I have more to add that I have not said here yet ... Wall Street is still panning the gas drillers
(I believe there are only about two rigs left, lonely little critters ....) The anal-ists still believe that drillers think the way they do, in nanoseconds, that the drillers do not remember how many false hopes have arisen in the last six years since the collapse, or how long it has actually been since the prices paid for gas were actually higher than what it costs them to get it out of the ground and out to market (which they have to do with one hand because the other hand is occupied fighting off the extremist environmentalists who want ALL of the benefits but NONE of the risks).
What that means is, they are not going to rush right out and buy new rigs and go drill. Not because of one or two months worth of high prices. Anyway, its cold outside. No one likes drilling in North Dakota very much when the temperature in the morning is 25 degrees below zero. The drillers are pretty happy to let things ride as they are, allow the inventories ride on down to zero, let a few Wall Stereet twits find out what an unheated, unlit office feels like ....let a few tree huggers stick out their tongues and get stuck there ... and let the prices rise to a decent level and stay there for at least a couple of years ....
This is gonna be fun. By the way, there's still time to get in cheaply......
1 comment:
The futures market this morning is showing exactly what I am saying ... when the first real cold weather came through and subsequently the first big draw on inventories, the traders and investors reacted by driving up prices sharply, but ONLY for the months of January and February. The months beyond those barely budged and a severe backwardation condition arose. Now, however, it is beginning to dawn on some folk that this condition is pretty serious AND its not going to be fixed just by sticking a paper straw in the ground and expecting gas to come out of it. This morning you are starting to see significant increases in May, June, July, August, and on into next winter. When the real cold weather arrives this winter (yeah, I know, its already 30 degrees below in some places in the US, but, like, that's still +250 degrees Kelvin ...), and the real draws on inventory make it more obvious that the country is actually in trouble and we are actually going to experience shortages, for which no amount of money will produce enough gas to fix, then there could be some excitement for those of us who prepared for this ....
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